What this second Trump Presidency will likely mean for usThe election was one of the closest in history according to voting polls over the past few weeks, with polling group FiveThirtyEight reporting that Harris just barely reached a 1.2 per cent lead on Trump a day before the results were counted.
The Trump-Vance Republican ticket has been vocal and incredibly negative about the LGBTQ+ community in recent weeks, constantly pushing anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric and promising to enact abhorrent policies.
The last Trump presidency led to a roll-back of protections and anti-discrimination laws for LGBTQ+ people, and it doesn’t look as if a second term would be any different if he is re-elected, based on campaign promises and the detailed policy proposals outlined in Project 2025 – although Trump has tried to distance himself from the right-wing proposals.
In anticipation of a Trump win, the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) suggested a new Trump administration would “reinstate and significantly escalate the removal of anti-discrimination policies… proactively require discrimination by the federal government [and] weaponize federal law against transgender people across the country”.
So, what are Trump’s views about LGBTQ+ rights, and what exactly might he do? It would likely erase federal non-discrimination protections for LGBTQ+ people. Trump’s first term was extremely detrimental to the rights and protections of LGBTQ+ people, and a second term could roll back protections once again. LGBTQ+ people might no longer be guaranteed to be free of discrimination across several federal government programmers, such as Social Security, Medicare, housing and employment.
This will embolden and increase discrimination towards all queer people, but towards trans people in particular. Already, 53 per cent of LGBTQ+ people have reported experiencing discrimination because of their sexual orientation and 18 per cent due to their gender identity.
It would likely exclude openly transgender people from the military. The first Trump administration reversed policies allowing trans people to serve in the military, and it is not difficult to foresee the president doing so again. Another ban on trans people in the military would force out active-duty transgender service personnel as well as prevent trans people enlisting in the future.
This is despite a report in 2016 revealing that trans-inclusive policies have “little or no impact on unit cohesion, operational effectiveness, or readiness”. In fact, trans-inclusive military policies could benefit all active service members by “creating a more inclusive and diverse force.”
The Trump Administration would withhold federal funding if school officials affirm transgender students. Trump has said he would act to stop any school district introducing or maintaining trans-inclusive policies and practices.
This would include withholding federal funding that allow trans students to use toilets and changing rooms that align with their gender identity, or even acknowledging that they are trans, as well as arguing that trans-inclusive policies violate the rights of cisgender pupils.
Discrimination against trans students, causing significant harm to the community as a whole, would be the likely result of such a move. For example, the Trump Administration would likely prohibit gender-affirming care in federal healthcare programs. Gender-affirming medical care is likely to be non-existent in a second Trump term. He has already pledged to “end left-wing gender insanity” and would outlaw federal funding for reassignment surgeries.
His website also promises that on his first day in the Oval Office, he would issue an executive order “instructing every federal agency to cease all programmers that promote the concept of sex and gender transition, at any age”.
The administration would also probably deny Medicaid funding for hospitals that provide gender-affirming care, forcing medics to deny trans people the care they require.
This administration will allow employers to discriminate against LGBTQ+ staff. A second Trump administration will bring in provisions to allow employers to discriminate against LGBTQ+ members of staff based on the boss’ stated religious beliefs, a reversal of existing non-discrimination laws.
This would not require congress or bipartisan support, and could be pushed through using an executive order from the president.
The administration could go one step further to prevent state and local governments enforcing non-discrimination laws if the defendant says the discrimination was based on religious belief.
Laws protecting LGBTQ+ people and other minorities from discrimination based on protected characteristics might also disappear.
That means any discussion of transgender people in schools and libraries could be criminalized, and trans people might face jail time for being themselves. Trump would only be able to put this into practice with congress’ approval and there is unlikely to be bipartisan support for such a law, but even the slim possibility is terrifying.
Finally – could gay marriage be reversed? After crucial abortion legislation Roe v. Wade was overturned by the Supreme Court, many people said that next, they would be coming for Windsor and Obergefell and Lawrence – three rulings that unlocked a national right to same-sex marriage.
Whether a same-sex couple could marry varied by state before 2015. With its 5-4 decision in Obergefell v. Hodges, the Supreme Court extended the full federal right to marry to all same-sex couples.
So would – or could it be taken away? Many people think that the Supreme Court wouldn’t dare. Same-sex marriage is now too accepted in American society, they argue. It would cause “legal chaos.”
However, it remains the case that some justices, particularly Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas, appear to be itching to overturn Obergefell. In 2022, Justice Thomas said the Supreme Court “should reconsider” its past rulings codifying rights to contraception access, same-sex relationships and same-sex marriage.
It’s important to remember in all of this Pride is a protest, and it continues to be. We can fight any and all of these attacks by standing up, speaking out and refusing to stay silent.(11/6)
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